By elections are one of those funny things in politics. When you win, it is of course a massive vote of confidence for the party that wins, the media breathlessly report that the victory is either proof positive of a massive change in government about to happen or that their existing majority government is set to rule for decades to come.
We know who won the by-elections, but who lost is up for debate.
Of course, the Liberals held their seat in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity which was never really in question. Formerly held by the Liberal cabinet Minister Judy Foote in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Liberals also held onto their seat in Scarborough-Agincourt, which also was not really in question. Gerry Ritz’s old seat was held by the Conservatives in the Saskatchewan riding of Battlefords – Lloydminster. No real issues to discuss there. Two wins for the Liberals, one for the Conservatives, all predictable.
The riding that got the most attention was the Liberal victory in the BC riding of South Surrey-White Rock where the Liberals took a seat away from the Conservatives. At first glance it would appear that this is a big victory for the Liberals and a real embarrassment for the Conservatives.
The Conservatives, fresh off the victory of Andrew Scheer as leader, have now lost two by-elections to the Liberals this fall with the other one in the Quebec riding of Lac-Saint-Jean. Conventional wisdom, as well as my own personal belief, is that by-elections afford the electorate an opportunity to pass judgement on the sitting government without the fear or complications of changing the government.
We typically find that we have lower voter turnout, which means those who are mad and motivated (typically conservatives) by the dislike of the government will come out while those content with the government see no need to venture to the polls when the election will have no impact on the party in power.
The fact that the Liberals won over the Conservatives in BC is a problem for the Conservatives. Public opinion polls tell us that Scheer did not get the post leadership bounce that new leaders typically get. And now with two by-election losses for the blue team, the CPC should be wondering just what it is that have to do to win.
They have spent the fall bashing the government on ethical issues too numerous to type here, they have attached on fiscal issues that people don’t seem to care about, and the litany of broken promises or promised not yet achieved is growing by the day, yet the Liberals keep winning.
We can assume from the words and visuals of the Conservatives ad campaign that they will be trying to win in 2019 with a narrative that paints the Liberals as elites and out of touch with real Canadians. Tax shelters, off shore accounts, numbered companies, forgotten villas all painted against the backdrop of tax hikes for small business and professionals alike being used as proof points. But yet here we are in the midst of the this scandal and yet the Liberals are seating more seats, not bleeding support. I am sure there will be some difficult discussions within Conservative offices..
So clearly the Conservatives lost and the Liberals are winners. But I do submit that the NDP are the ones who should be the most worried about the results in BC. For them, this is a crisis, not a mere expected loss.
No, the NDP did not hold any of the ridings, and no they were not expected to contest in any of them, but here is the big issue for them. Their support has plummeted in the results of the night in that riding. Their support levels were cut in half from 10% to about 5% of the popular vote. The trouble is that this is the exact type of riding that we were told that Jagmeet Singh would compete and win in. Specifically, we were told that they would reclaim support in Quebec, which has not happened, we were told they would compete in 416-905 in vote rich Ontario, which we have not had the opportunity to see yet, but living here I see no evidence of it, in addition to losing the diverse riding in Agincourt, and we were told that they would begin to make further gains in BC suburbs which is exactly where they took a big hit last night.
In a sense, that the Conservatives should be worried today, but the NDP have much more to worry about. In most cases, the CPC vote went up in each riding – Newfoundland, GTA, and Saskatchewan. So it is not all doom and gloom at the CPC HQ.
The Liberals, and their popular local candidate in BC, essentially defeated the Conservatives with NDP support. The drop in NDP support almost perfectly aligns with the increase in Liberal support pushing them over the top. The Conservatives may have lost the seat, but it was the erosion in the NDP support in this riding that saw the liberals vault over the Conservatives to win. The NDP lost 5% of the popular vote, and the Liberals won this time out by 5% of the popular vote. The Liberal tact to the left is killing the NDP.
This should not come as a surprise. We have seen the exact same thing in Ontario with the Ontario Liberals there, guided for a while by the same Gerry Butts now guiding Trudeau, have successfully kept the NDP in check by moving the party to the left. A fact painfully driven home in the 2014 general election in Ontario where the NDP were stalled, gaining no seats, in an election that many believed could be a “Jack Layton” moment.
If we believe the narrative that by-elections are an opportunity to punish the government without the consequences of a change in the governing party, then the protest rich support of the NDP should be increased not decreased.
Conservatives have a massive interest in a strong NDP. More three-way races where all parties are competitive help the Conservatives. The BC by-election last night shows exactly why. The Conservatives did well! They took 42% of the vote. In a strong three-way race, or even a race where the NDP can get over 10%, that is a Conservative win. The share of the popular vote for the Conservatives went up in Newfoundland, up in Scarborough, and up in Saskatchewan. So, while they are down one seat, there is still reason for optimism.
The same is not true for the NDP. In all six of the by-elections since Singh has been elected leader of the federal NDP his party’s share of the popular vote has declined.
Winners – Liberals, Losers – Conservatives, In crisis – NDP